Reservas internacionales y credibilidad de la política macroeconómica en una economía dolarizada: evidencia y lecciones para Ecuador
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https://doi.org/10.69639/arandu.v12i4.1765Palabras clave:
reservas internacionales, credibilidad, dolarización, utonomía del banco central, riesgo soberanoResumen
El artículo examina el vínculo entre la suficiencia de reservas internacionales y la credibilidad de la política macroeconómica en el marco de la dolarización ecuatoriana. Se sintetizan contribuciones clásicas y recientes sobre demanda óptima de reservas, métricas de adecuación y costos de acumulación, incorporando dimensiones de gobernanza del banco central, disciplina fiscal y transparencia. Con base en el manuscrito fuente y documentación institucional, se propone un conjunto de indicadores operativos para monitorear la credibilidad (expectativas de inflación, EMBI, comunicación y liquidez externa) y se presentan cuatro tablas que integran métricas, hitos institucionales y riesgos. Los resultados sugieren que la posición de liquidez externa, acompañada de reglas fiscales creíbles y autonomía técnica, contribuye a anclar expectativas y a mitigar vulnerabilidades en un régimen sin instrumentos monetarios propios. Se discuten implicaciones de política para fortalecer la resiliencia macrofinanciera y se identifican áreas de mejora en medición, comunicación y gestión de pasivos.
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Derechos de autor 2025 Evelin del Cisne Arteaga Arcentales, Walter Mario Franco Vera, Carlos Alberto Bastidas Vaca
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